Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2024?
7
13
Ṁ1kṀ220
Dec 31
3%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question will be resolved as 'yes' if AP, Reuters, and AFP unanimously report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. If one or more of those agencies cease to exist, the reporting from the remaining agency(ies) will be considered sufficient.
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2100?
41% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029?
29% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2027?
17% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028?
17% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by the end of 2024?
3% chance
Will China begin an invasion of Taiwan by 2028?
14% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026?
13% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2025?
10% chance