William MacAskill, a founder of the Effective Altruism movement.
This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years). The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.
To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.
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🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ386 | |
| 2 | Ṁ212 | |
| 3 | Ṁ21 | |
| 4 | Ṁ14 | |
| 5 | Ṁ14 |
@BillyMcRascal I have 1/4 of my mana locked up in this market & can't liquidate it without taking a big L, how is your insider trading going?
@CateHall DM me if you'd like to get out of this market and you can make a good case for YES at, say, 90
@BillyMcRascal A gentleman! @CarsonGale please to resolve (preferably before the league timer ends in 13h)?
@BillyMcRascal perhaps you would like to confirm your identity so the market can resolve :D
@CateHall Hmm, but can I start spreading misinformation and then buy "yes" and make more manna?
@BillyMcRascal Yes, but at this point you have your work cut out for you convincing everyone that you aren't Will!
@BillyMcRascal I think you've missed your opportunity for market manipulation to some extent, though I'm curious what kind of misinformation would work -- I would be impressed
You could switch to a large NO position, privately sign over the ownership of your account to someone else, publicly announce that this is not your account and is an impersonator (truthfully), then sell your no position and buy YES, then reclaim your account from the transitory owner and publicly declare your identity, profiting immensely in the process (with internet points)