Will PredictIt continue to have a conservative bent by end of 2028? | Manifold

Will PredictIt continue to have a conservative bent by end of 2028?

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I've heard this comment several times, and it seems odd given political biases ought to decrease performance in the context of prediction markets.

Resolves based on whether PredictIt has a conservative bent when forecasting the 2028 US presidential election relative to competitor prediction market / forecasting platforms.

Dec 12, 3:19pm: ~~Will the popular perception that PredictIt has a conservative bias persist by end of 2028?~~ → Will PredictIt continue to have a conservative bent by end of 2028?

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PredictIt is unlikely to survive due to the loss of the no-action letter.

@bagelman i would resolve n/a in that case

by what metric will the resolution be judged?

@L I will look at PredictIt shares for major election markets and if there is a substantial conservative leaning relative to other orgs like Manifold, Metaculus, Kalshi, etc. then I will resolve positively

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Related questions

Will PredictIt still be operating markets through 2025?

Who will come out as conservative in 2025? (Add answers)

Will i be left leaning as of 1 jan 2026

Will the word "based" be less right-leaning at the end of 2025 than it is today? (based on google trends)

In 2028, Will "Change in Average Inflation Rate" continue its 13-election win streak of predicting the US PV winner?

Will the Supreme Court rule on PredictIt vs. CFTC before 2026?

Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?

Which prediction markets and forecasting platforms will still be opening new markets/questions through 2028?

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