Will Manifold house a prediction market service that utilizes real money trades by 2040?
52
186
1k
2041
66%
chance

Does not resolve positively if Manifold offers additional things you can trade mana for - trades themselves have to involve USD or another currency.

Get Ṁ600 play money
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Arbitrage, sort of:

bought Ṁ30 of YES

Assuming Manifund doesn't count, why not? Is predicting charitable impact too narrow of a scope for it to count as a prediction market?

Does manifold have any CTFC connections?

CFTC

predicts NO

@xyz Not that I know of.

bought Ṁ20 of NO

Would love to be wrong.

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