Will Manifold house a prediction market service that utilizes real money trades by 2040?
55
1kαΉ€2006
resolved Apr 21
Resolved
YES

Does not resolve positively if Manifold offers additional things you can trade mana for - trades themselves have to involve USD or another currency.

Manifold
Manifold Business Future
Carson's Important Markets
Get
αΉ€1,000
to start trading!

πŸ… Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1αΉ€138
2αΉ€102
3αΉ€102
4αΉ€63
5αΉ€59

People are also trading

Will Manifold introduce an AI-based feature that automatically resolves markets by 2030?
82% chance
Will Manifold Markets add betting with USD by 2035?
69% chance
Will Manifold Markets still exist in 2040?
86% chance
Will Manifold Markets still exist in a decade? (Jan 2, 2034)
64% chance
Will US real-money prediction markets create significantlty more shenanigans according to Manifold ?
80% chance
Will Nate Silver create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
41% chance
Will prediction markets be formally integrated into a government's political system before 2040? πŸ“œπŸ›οΈβš–οΈπŸ“Š
45% chance
Will Manifold let AI autoresolve markets by 2028?
26% chance
Before 2028, will a sovereign state directly manipulate a real-money prediction market?
57% chance
Will manifold reintroduce real money betting by 2026?
25% chance
Sort by:

What about Sweepstakes?

bought αΉ€50 YES

@CarsonGale do prize point qualify if we get an USD exchange rate?

Yes for full USD exchange

Arbitrage, sort of:

Assuming Manifund doesn't count, why not? Is predicting charitable impact too narrow of a scope for it to count as a prediction market?

Does manifold have any CTFC connections?

CFTC

predictedNO

@xyz Not that I know of.

Would love to be wrong.

People are also trading

Will Manifold introduce an AI-based feature that automatically resolves markets by 2030?
82% chance
Will Manifold Markets add betting with USD by 2035?
69% chance
Will Manifold Markets still exist in 2040?
86% chance
Will Manifold Markets still exist in a decade? (Jan 2, 2034)
64% chance
Will US real-money prediction markets create significantlty more shenanigans according to Manifold ?
80% chance
Will Nate Silver create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
41% chance
Will prediction markets be formally integrated into a government's political system before 2040? πŸ“œπŸ›οΈβš–οΈπŸ“Š
45% chance
Will Manifold let AI autoresolve markets by 2028?
26% chance
Before 2028, will a sovereign state directly manipulate a real-money prediction market?
57% chance
Will manifold reintroduce real money betting by 2026?
25% chance
Β© Manifold Markets, Inc.β€’Termsβ€’Privacy