Will Manifold house a prediction market service that utilizes real money trades by 2040? | Manifold

Will Manifold house a prediction market service that utilizes real money trades by 2040?

Manifold•Manifold Business Future•Carson's Important Markets

52

184

Ṁ1.6K

Ṁ940

2041

66%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Does not resolve positively if Manifold offers additional things you can trade mana for - trades themselves have to involve USD or another currency.

Get Ṁ200 play money

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Arbitrage, sort of:

bought Ṁ30 of YES

Assuming Manifund doesn't count, why not? Is predicting charitable impact too narrow of a scope for it to count as a prediction market?

Does manifold have any CTFC connections?

CFTC

predicts NO

@xyz Not that I know of.

bought Ṁ20 of NO

Would love to be wrong.

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Will Manifold be more accurate than real-money markets in forecasting the 2024 election?

Will Manifold be profitable before 2040?

Will Manifold support decision markets by the end of 2024?

Will Manifold Markets outlive PredictionBook?

Will Manifold natively facilitate micro-payments from market creators to users that trade on their markets by end of 2024?

Will a real money alternative to manifold appear before 2025?

+3% 1d58% chance

Will Manifold be profitable before 2030?

Will Manifold introduce an AI-based feature that automatically resolves markets by 2030?

Will Manifold have a real-money market on the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election?

Will Manifold Markets still exist in 2040?

Manifold questions

How much mana will be donated before May ?

Stonks become a mana sink by 2024-05-10?

Manifold Business Future questions

👍👎 Manifold Leadership Approval Rating [Market Index]

🚧What will Manifold's Big Pivot entail? [ADD RESPONSES]

Carson's Important Markets questions

Will the effective altruism movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?

Will there be a US president who identifies as female by end of 2035?

Related questions

Will Manifold be more accurate than real-money markets in forecasting the 2024 election?

Will a real money alternative to manifold appear before 2025?

Will Manifold be profitable before 2040?

Will Manifold be profitable before 2030?

Will Manifold support decision markets by the end of 2024?

Will Manifold introduce an AI-based feature that automatically resolves markets by 2030?

Will Manifold Markets outlive PredictionBook?

Will Manifold have a real-money market on the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election?

Will Manifold natively facilitate micro-payments from market creators to users that trade on their markets by end of 2024?

Will Manifold Markets still exist in 2040?