By popular response and my own view on the correct resolution, I'm resolving YES. I think both the spirit of the market has been fulfilled by the rapid weight loss, reaching the proposed milestone early, and even after stopping the semaglutide I've thus far remained a few pounds below the limit so even if I were to wait I'm fairly certain I would just stay below the limit regardless.

I truly didn't "try" to lose weight in the sense of focusing my attention to do something I didn't want to do - the semaglutide really influenced my body to simply eat less / get full quicker, and I think there were virtuous effects where running / exercising are more fun when I'm carrying around less weight.

I'll make a follow-up market around whether I'll gain the weight back in 2025 and will leave it in the comments in case anyone wants to bet. :)

@CarsonGale Will you again start taking semi or will you not take it in 2025? Interested in placing a large bet depending on the answer. I believe it’s mechanical like taking a laxative. If you take it you’ll lose weight, if you don’t you’ll gain it back.

i believed in u from the start

@traders I wanted to provide some context around my recent pause in taking semaglutide. As of November 28th, I reached a weight of 169.7 lbs, achieving the market’s target of getting below 170 lbs. However, I stopped taking semaglutide on November 22nd to enjoy the holidays and be able to eat as much as I want without the appetite suppression effects of the medication. From a health perspective, I also feel like I’ve reached the limits of what I want to achieve for now.

Given the market’s terms, I want to ensure I handle this situation transparently and fairly. I’d like to ask for feedback on the following potential resolutions:

1. Resolve the market as "N/A": This aligns with the technical condition of not taking semaglutide consecutively for 3 months, as specified in the market description.

2. Resolve the market as "Yes": I did achieve the weight loss goal, and I estimate that there’s a 99%+ chance the market would have resolved "Yes" had I continued the medication uninterrupted, since I reached the target weight with ~5 weeks of semaglutide use remaining.

3. Restart semaglutide in January: In this case, I would complete the remaining ~5 weeks of missed usage, continuing the medication to meet the 3-month consecutive period. If I stay below 170 lbs during this time, the market would resolve "Yes."

I have my own view on how this should resolve, but before making a decision I wanted to give stakeholders an option to provide input. I want to balance fairness to traders, rewarding accuracy, and the integrity of the market given the description.

Looking forward to your thoughts and sorry for the complications!

@CarsonGale you should resolve yes.

@CarsonGale I bought NO shares, but I think it's fine to resolve YES.

@CarsonGale I think you should wait until 12/27 as mentioned when you started. Based on what you weigh by then, that’s how you should resolve.

I think any side-effects from the medication were included in the original market (and that includes “I don’t like the loss of appetite “). Whether you were going to keep taking it, and manage to lose weight in the middle of the holidays was part of it.

I have very little on this market, so I don’t really care personally, but that’s my opinion.

Of course don’t feel forced to do anything you don’t think is healthy for you, it’s just a fun market. 🤷🏻‍♂️

@CarsonGale Well done! I think what @Santiago says is fair. And I'd reiterate: don't make any changes in your personal life for the sake of this market. Happy holidays!

@CarsonGale I'd go with the spirit of the market: yes.

Update?

@BrunoJ 172.1 lbs as of today. At the current rate I would be surprised if I am not under 170lbs by end of December unless I gain weight or stagnate over the holidays. I'm still a bit chubby so have probably another 5-10 lbs before I would stop taking the semaglutide out of concern of losing too much weight.

TBH my diet still sucks - mostly carbs, some sweets, and veggies here or there. I'm just naturally eating a lot less bc of the semaglutide. No negative side effects.

I have found myself exercising more frequently - running is much easier 20+ lbs lighter! So maybe that's helpful too, IDK.

@CarsonGale are you upping your dosage at all?

@CraigTalbert nope, has always been the same

—-

@PaulHan Nice! Wow you really kept it up - did you stay on wegovy or did you just develop healthier habits?

—

UPDATE: I'm taking my second dose tonight. I've noticed a decrease in appetite over the last week that seems unrelated to the surgery prior. I just get full / satisfied earlier and several times have only eaten half a meal when I previously would have wanted to eat the full thing.

My weight has declined - today I weighed in at 182.7lbs, so ~5lbs loss since last week. This has also been induced by work stress which seems to have caused lack of eating - though normally I stress-eat when work gets crazy so maybe this can still be sourced somewhat to the semaglutide.

No side effects thus far besides hiccuping a bit more than usual.

UPDATE: I took the first dose of Semaglutide today on 9/27/24, and absent any really bad side effects will continue taking it weekly until 12/27/24.

I weighed myself right before donating my kidney last week at 192.6 lbs (already leaner than ~200lbs when I started this market). I've since lost weight during recovery (haven't been able to eat much) and am currently sitting at 187.6 lbs. To (i) balance the unusual weight shock of recovery from surgery and (ii) to avoid setting a threshold below my imagined healthy weight of 170 lbs, I've decided as market creator to set the threshold at which the market will resolve positively at anything below 170 lbs (rather than 167.6 lbs under a strict interpretation). I think this approach is fair given the unusual circumstances and how little I've eaten since surgery, but please let me know if you feel this is poor judgment.

No promises, but I have good intentions of posting weekly or biweekly weight updates to give traders something to chew on. I'll update the market description with the latest resolution criteria soon.

Enjoy betting!

It's a YES from me.

How's it going? Hope it's working as you wanted 👍

I did get the semaglutide, but I'm waiting to start it as I'm donating my kidney probably next month so my doctor suggested it would make more sense to start a few weeks afterwards

Okay, all the best 👍

If you were thinking about stacking, I recently had ChatGPT rank weightloss supplements and Rxs in order of effectiveness for another reason (not a doctor, not medical advice). There are probably better lists like this out there, but I don’t think I’ve seen one before.

1. GLP-1 Agonists (e.g., Liraglutide, Semaglutide)

• Mechanism: Mimics the incretin hormone GLP-1, increasing insulin secretion, decreasing glucagon secretion, slowing gastric emptying, and increasing satiety.

• Evidence: Numerous large-scale clinical trials have demonstrated significant weight loss in patients with obesity and type 2 diabetes .

• Sources: Prescription medications like Saxenda (liraglutide) and Wegovy (semaglutide).

2. Bupropion/Naltrexone (Contrave)

• Mechanism: Bupropion is an antidepressant and smoking cessation aid, while naltrexone is used for alcohol and opioid dependence. Together, they reduce appetite and control cravings.

• Evidence: Clinical trials show this combination can lead to significant weight loss

• Sources: Prescription medication (Contrave).

3. Caffeine

• Mechanism: Increases metabolism and fat oxidation.

• Evidence: Numerous studies show caffeine can boost short-term fat loss by enhancing energy expenditure and mobilizing fats from tissues.

• Sources: Coffee, tea, and many fat loss supplements.

4. Green Tea Extract

• Mechanism: Contains catechins, particularly EGCG, which increase fat oxidation and thermogenesis.

• Evidence: Multiple studies support its effectiveness in enhancing fat loss, especially when combined with caffeine.

• Sources: Green tea, supplements.

5. Phentermine

• Mechanism: Appetite suppressant that affects the central nervous system.

• Evidence: Approved for short-term use (up to 12 weeks) in conjunction with diet and exercise. Studies show significant weight loss in the short term .

• Sources: Prescription medication (e.g., Adipex-P, Lomaira).

6. Topiramate (Qsymia)

• Mechanism: Originally used to treat seizures and migraines, it also affects appetite and satiety.

• Evidence: Often combined with phentermine (brand name Qsymia). Clinical trials demonstrate significant weight loss over extended periods .

• Sources: Prescription medication (Qsymia).

7. Dexedrine, Vyvanse, and Adderall (Amphetamines)

• Mechanism: Stimulants that increase norepinephrine and dopamine levels, leading to appetite suppression and increased energy expenditure.

• Evidence: Studies show significant weight loss in patients using these medications for ADHD, though they are not primarily prescribed for weight loss .

• Sources: Prescription medications (Dexedrine, Vyvanse, Adderall).

8. Protein Supplements

• Mechanism: Increases satiety, helps preserve muscle mass, and boosts metabolism.

• Evidence: High-protein diets are consistently linked to better fat loss outcomes and improved body composition.

• Sources: Whey protein, casein, soy protein.

9. Metformin

• Mechanism: Improves insulin sensitivity, reduces hepatic glucose production, and can promote modest weight loss.

• Evidence: Widely used in type 2 diabetes management, with evidence showing modest weight loss benefits in overweight and obese individuals .

• Sources: Prescription medication.

10. Fucoxanthin

• Mechanism: Enhances expression of mitochondrial uncoupling protein 1 (UCP1) in white adipose tissue, promoting fat oxidation and energy expenditure.

• Evidence: Recent human studies have shown significant weight loss and improvements in metabolic markers, particularly when combined with other compounds like pomegranate seed oil .

• Sources: Brown seaweed, supplements.

11. Orlistat

• Mechanism: Inhibits the absorption of fats in the intestine.

• Evidence: Proven to aid weight loss when used alongside a calorie-restricted diet.

• Sources: Prescription (Xenical) and over-the-counter (Alli) medication.

12. Conjugated Linoleic Acid (CLA)

• Mechanism: May reduce body fat by altering the metabolism of fat cells.

• Evidence: Mixed results, but some studies show modest fat loss benefits.

• Sources: Meat, dairy, supplements.

13. Glucomannan

• Mechanism: A soluble fiber that expands in the stomach, promoting a feeling of fullness.

• Evidence: Studies show that glucomannan can aid weight loss when taken before meals by reducing appetite and calorie intake.

• Sources: Konjac root, supplements.

14. Testosterone Replacement Therapy (TRT)

• Mechanism: Increases muscle mass, reduces fat mass, and enhances metabolic rate.

• Evidence: TRT can help reduce fat mass and improve body composition in men with low testosterone levels .

• Sources: Prescription therapy.

15. Hormone Replacement Therapy (HRT) for Women

• Mechanism: Estrogen helps regulate metabolism, insulin sensitivity, and fat distribution, reducing abdominal fat accumulation during menopause.

• Evidence: HRT can help mitigate weight gain and improve body composition in postmenopausal women .

• Sources: Prescription therapy.

16. Yohimbine

• Mechanism: Acts as an alpha-2 adrenergic receptor antagonist, increasing norepinephrine release and fat breakdown.

• Evidence: Some studies suggest modest benefits for weight loss, particularly in stubborn fat areas, though evidence is mixed and side effects can be significant .

• Sources: Supplements.

17. Garcinia Cambogia

• Mechanism: Contains hydroxycitric acid (HCA), which may inhibit fat-producing enzymes and increase serotonin levels.

• Evidence: Mixed results with some studies showing moderate weight loss benefits.

• Sources: Garcinia Cambogia fruit, supplements.

18. Rapamycin

• Mechanism: Inhibits mTOR, a protein that regulates cell growth, proliferation, and survival; associated with lifespan extension and reduced fat mass in animal studies.

• Evidence: Limited human data, but animal studies show promising results for fat reduction and healthspan improvement .

• Sources: Prescription medication, primarily used for immunosuppression.

19. Chromium Picolinate

• Mechanism: Helps regulate blood sugar levels and may reduce appetite and cravings.

• Evidence: Mixed results, with some studies suggesting modest weight loss benefits and others showing minimal effects .

• Sources: Dietary supplement.

20. Probiotics

• Mechanism: May influence gut microbiota, which can affect weight regulation and metabolic health.

• Evidence: Some studies show promising results in terms of weight loss and reduction of body fat, but more research is needed .

• Sources: Supplements, fermented foods.

21. Berberine

• Mechanism: An alkaloid that can improve insulin sensitivity and has anti-inflammatory effects.

• Evidence: Some studies suggest it can help with weight loss and improve metabolic health markers .

• Sources: Supplements.

22. Capsaicin

• Mechanism: Found in chili peppers, it can increase metabolism and promote fat oxidation.

• Evidence: Studies show it can aid in weight management by boosting metabolic rate and reducing appetite

The annoying thing about weight loss supplements in my experience is that they fall into 3 categories:

1. Legal but barely effective
2. Illegal and/or slightly harmful but effective
3. Illegal and very harmful but very effective

Semaglutide is a legal and effective one, which makes it so amazing.

Also, most supplements either
- Increase metabolism
- Decrease appetite
or
- Try to change absorption of food

Issue here is that the first two mostly happen by taking stimulants (coffee, nicotine, amphetamines, ephedrine) which is not always good for you (but maybe better than obesity).
In particular ephedrine is often used by bodybuilders in the so called "ACE" stack.
But sadly ephedrine is a controlled substance in most parts of the world (afaik because you can easily use it to cook more dangerous drugs)

For the third category (very harmful) there are things like DNP, which also increases your energy expenditure. Not as a stimulant, but by destroying the function of you mitochondria. Also sometimes used by bodybuilders, which to me seems crazy. It was made illegal in germany after a teenage girl accidentally over-dosed.

All other substances have rather negligible effects on weight loss iirc.
Examine.com has amazing write-ups on this too, focusing on supplements.

Market is too overpriced for Yes