Will I be able to complete a 10+ hour trip via self-driving car by end of 2024?
32
111
610
2025
11%
chance

I'll look at the various platforms available and will see if it's possible to order a self-driving taxi to a location that is 10 hours or more away from the Presidio of SF. I do not need to actually complete the ride in order to have a positive resolution.

I am currently an approved Waymo rider.

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This one is confusing why it's so high (~20-30%). It doesn't seem like any player would even have this on their roadmap (pun sorta intended). Everyone except Waymo will just be struggling to catch up to where Waymo is today operating driverless in one city. Waymo will likely at best try to expand around the Bay and show consistency, while trying their first tests of their Gen 6 vehicles. Doesn't seem like any way they would they would go more than ~hour away from the Presidio.

Tesla seems like the only path to Yes, but only if being loose with definitions. People have already done "intervention free" Tesla FSD trips from SF to LA trips, so close to 10hrs. You could rent one on a platform like Turo and do a similar drive, but aren't really "ordering a self-driving taxi" here. You are still the driver. Even in the unlikely case where Tesla launches a robotaxi service this year, they'd at best be in that category of trying to catchup to Waymo by servicing in small area.

I would be interested to hear any scenario someone sees for this resolving Yes.