Will Emily and I get a divorce by end of 2040?

@EmilyFuhriman and I have been partnered for almost 5 years now, and we might be married. See >>> /EmilyFuhriman/are-carson-and-i-married

In the event that we are already married OR get married, will we get a divorce by 2040?

For context, Emily is previously divorced and is famously pro-divorce. Similarly, I think credible intent to divorce is an important tool in limiting relationship monopolies that incentivize partners to put the minimum amount of work into your relationship that is required to keep your partner from breaking up with you (i.e., divorcing). By raising the threshold for what would credibly constitute a relationship-ending status, a partnership increases its requirements for how well each party needs to treat each other to maintain the partnership.

So we are both pro-divorce...but we are also super duper in love with each other and have been for the last 5 years. And Manifold generally believes in us in the short term: /CarsonGale/will-emily-and-i-still-be-in-a-rela

We just surveyed each other about the maximum $ amount we would be willing to pay a secret, magic genie to keep dating each other; I was willing to pay ~$15k a year and Emily was willing to pay ~$5k (her rationale --> it would be hard to find a good enough alternative, but not THAT hard). Hopefully, this information is helpful to potential traders.

This market resolves "n/a" if Emily and I turn out to never have been married by 2040, and resolves NO if we do not get a divorce between now and 2040.

Update: Emily has stipulated that I add to the market description that we will NOT get divorced for the explicit purpose of market manipulation. i.e., we will act in good faith.

Get Ṁ600 play money
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predicts NO

Relevant information traders should know: Emily just divorced her wife on Stardew Valley because "she got bored with her wife and fell in love with Elliott, who writes poetry for her and plays the piano".

Invite me to court. I am considered a witness.

But does your good faith stipulation also extend to not prolonging your marriage for the purpose of market manipulation, or may you use this market as motivation to avoid divorced

predicts NO

@MingweiSamuel glad these details are getting ironed out - confirming as well that we will not prolong our marriage for the purpose of market manipulation (i.e., we will give a good faith effort to not avoid divorce because of this market)

If you are not already married, does the good faith stipulation extend to the act of getting married as well?

predicts NO

@jcb I also commit that, if we are not already married, we will not base our decision of whether or not to get married on any mana-related profit motive.

5k san francisco tech job dollars, or 5k real world hard working dollars?

predicts NO

@MingweiSamuel she's a nurse at UCSF, does that answer your question?

Question titles that had me VERY confused for a second: