Part 3: In 2023, will state policymakers crack down on Big Tech's data collection measures by issuing hefty fines?
resolved Jan 2

On January 4th, 2023 Term Sheet, a well-known financial newsletter by Fortune (typically regarding PE/VC) posted a series of predictions regarding the calendar year 2023.

One of these predictions was the following:

2023 will be riddled with Big Tech companies developing corporate policies in direct response to evolving data privacy regulations. In absence of a federal data privacy law, Big Tech will have to shuffle their operations to meet varying state privacy policies. With increasing demands for consumer data protection, state policymakers will be forced to crack down on Big Tech’s data collection measures by issuing hefty fines.” —Steffen Schebesta, CEO North America & VP corporate development, Sendinblue

I will not attempt to initially define all resolution criteria in this market and will instead attempt to handle any nuances/complications/data feasibility as it arises. If by end of 2023 I think it is not possible to confidently resolve this market in the spirit in which it was intended, I reserve the right to resolve as "n/a".

Any clarifications to the resolution criteria will be listed below, along with the applicable date:

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The primary evidence I'm seeing for this is the $390M fine to Google by 40 US states. Not particularly 'hefty' and only one example, but I think it implies some truth to the prediction.

But given there weren't other large examples in 2023, I'm resolving to 35%.

predicted NO

@CarsonGale Why is it that this prediction only needs one instance of a trend whereas the Twitter changes one doesn’t?

predicted NO

@oh Just confused :)

@oh I don't quite understand - resolving to 35% is me disagreeing with the prediction, not agreeing with it? And I'm resolving the twitter one to 55%, implying 20% more credence in the twitter prediction than this one.

Regardless, I felt the twitter market was less about the number of changes (in any given company there will be numerous changes) and more about the scale of the changes relative to expectations. Whereas for this one I felt the lack of numerous large fines was a strong reason to decrease the resolution %.

predicted NO

@CarsonGale The Google $390m fine was in 2022? In fact this prediction was issued after that fine was imposed:

I personally think this should just be NO. We really didn't see state-level fines this year for various reasons.

@DanMan314 thank you very much for pointing this out - I'm not sure how I missed that. I'll be changing the resolution to NO instead.

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