Will there be new federal regulations in the US limiting employers' access to employee computer activity data by 2030?
Plus
5
Ṁ2452030
41%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
Learn more.1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
Learn more.1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.Related questions
By 2030 will regulations or laws make it prohibitively difficult to develop AI models in the United States?
23% chance
Will the U.S. government attempt to restrict VPN usage before January 1st, 2030?
34% chance
Will personally-produced data be considered personal property according to US law by 2040?
27% chance
Will the US require speed limiting devices on cars by 2030?
28% chance
Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?
20% chance
Will an anti-discrimination law be enacted to protect U.S. federal employees who have been genetically-edited or screened as embryos by 2100?
47% chance
Will Congress ban the sale of USA citizen genetic information to foreign companies or organizations by end of 2026?
53% chance
Will there be a national (US) school phone ban by 2030?
26% chance
Will any US state reduce the standard workweek to 35 hours/week or less by the end of 2030?
34% chance
Will we see a widely adopted reform to the 40 hour work week in the US before 2030?
34% chance