On January 4th, 2023 Term Sheet, a well-known financial newsletter by Fortune (typically regarding PE/VC) posted a series of predictions regarding the calendar year 2023.
One of these predictions was the following:
“We will see the impact of the sweeping industrial policy enacted in 2022 (the Inflation Reduction Act, the infrastructure bill, the CHIPS Act) start to materialize. By Q1 2023 a lot of the details of how the legislation will be implemented will be worked out, and companies that are manufacturing clean technologies, selling to the U.S. government, and/or serving critical supply chains will get a big boost. Between persistently high global energy prices and the bills’ incentives, there will be an inflection point in the ‘electrification of everything,’ which will create huge opportunities for new entrants to become the iconic companies of tomorrow—we will have many more Teslas created in the next decade.” —Monica Varman, partner, G2 Venture Partners
I will not attempt to initially define all resolution criteria in this market and will instead attempt to handle any nuances/complications/data feasibility as it arises. If by end of 2023 I think it is not possible to confidently resolve this market in the spirit in which it was intended, I reserve the right to resolve as "n/a".
Any clarifications to the resolution criteria will be listed below, along with the applicable date:
[TBU]
Global energy prices are back where they were around 2013 (inflation-adjusted): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PNRGINDEXM
That being said, there's a surge in electrification for sure, as municipalities incentivize heat pumps, induction, and generally moving away from gas: https://www.rewiringamerica.org/pace Kinda hard to say now if it's an inflection point but I really think it probably is - the electric car market is for sure exponential to now, and I would expect the pace will pick up on heat pumps and other stoves.
Inflection point? Who knows:
