In 2023, will there be a "trough of disillusionment" regarding LLMs?

490Ṁ2845

resolved Jan 2

Resolved

ALL

On January 4th, 2023 Term Sheet, a well-known financial newsletter by Fortune (typically regarding PE/VC) posted a series of predictions regarding the calendar year 2023.

One of these predictions was the following:

“In A.I., while there is currently a mania for large language models (LLMs), expect a trough of disillusionment by about mid-year as people realize there is still a long way to go before A.I. can usefully replace human interaction.” —Russ Wilcox, partner, Pillar VC

I will not attempt to initially define all resolution criteria in this market and will instead attempt to handle any nuances/complications/data feasibility as it arises. If by end of 2023 I think it is not possible to confidently resolve this market in the spirit in which it was intended, I reserve the right to resolve as "n/a".

Any clarifications to the resolution criteria will be listed below, along with the applicable date:

[TBU]

Carson's Important Markets

Term Sheet 2023 Predictions

Private Markets

New Year's Resolutions 2024

Get

1,000

to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ102
2		Ṁ19
3		Ṁ19
4		Ṁ16
5		Ṁ14

People are also trading

6 months from now will I judge that LLMs had already peaked by Nov 2024?

11% chance

Will there be major breakthrough in LLM Continual Learning before 2026?

26% chance

Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?

73% chance

Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?

82% chance

Will we get a new LLM paradigm by EOY?

31% chance

Will the leading LLM at the beginning of 2026 still be subject to the reversal curse?

46% chance

At the end of 2024, what type of LLM prompt will be the most popularized?

Will an LLM that someone is trying to shut down stop or avoid that in some way before 2026?

14% chance

At the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors?

44% chance

Will Apple release its own LLM on par with state of the art LLMs before 2026?

Sort by:

Nope, mania still applies current day IMO, most preeminently in VC investment. Maybe a trough is coming, but we haven't hit it yet. Still in hype mode.

predictedYES

https://hai.stanford.edu/news/llms-arent-ready-prime-time-fixing-them-will-be-hard

LLMs Aren’t Ready for Prime Time. Fixing Them Will Be Hard.

Researchers call for an academic-industry partnership on the scale of the Human Genome Project to make large language models useful and beneficial to society.

predictedYES

https://www.honest-broker.com/p/ugly-numbers-from-microsoft-and-chatgpt

Ugly Numbers from Microsoft and ChatGPT Reveal that AI Demand is Already Shrinking

The only areas where AI is flourishing are shamming, spamming & scamming

I don't understand why this is so high.

this also seems rather difficult to resolve

@jacksonpolack Numerous articles suggesting that LLMs have failed to deliver on promises might prompt a yes resolution.

predictedNO

I'm confident there will be numerous articles suggesting LLMs have failed to deliver next year, because there were this year though

@jacksonpolack And those articles were and are correct, in the sense that many people are saying that LLMs help them code twice or 5 or 20 or 100 times as fast, but we don't see stuff being produced twice or 5 or 20 or 100 times as fast.