In 2023, will there be a "trough of disillusionment" regarding LLMs?
resolved Jan 2

On January 4th, 2023 Term Sheet, a well-known financial newsletter by Fortune (typically regarding PE/VC) posted a series of predictions regarding the calendar year 2023.

One of these predictions was the following:

“In A.I., while there is currently a mania for large language models (LLMs), expect a trough of disillusionment by about mid-year as people realize there is still a long way to go before A.I. can usefully replace human interaction.”  —Russ Wilcox, partner, Pillar VC

I will not attempt to initially define all resolution criteria in this market and will instead attempt to handle any nuances/complications/data feasibility as it arises. If by end of 2023 I think it is not possible to confidently resolve this market in the spirit in which it was intended, I reserve the right to resolve as "n/a".

Any clarifications to the resolution criteria will be listed below, along with the applicable date:

  • [TBU]

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Nope, mania still applies current day IMO, most preeminently in VC investment. Maybe a trough is coming, but we haven't hit it yet. Still in hype mode.

bought Ṁ100 of NO
bought Ṁ50 of NO

I don't understand why this is so high.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

this also seems rather difficult to resolve

@jacksonpolack Numerous articles suggesting that LLMs have failed to deliver on promises might prompt a yes resolution.

predicted NO

I'm confident there will be numerous articles suggesting LLMs have failed to deliver next year, because there were this year though

@jacksonpolack And those articles were and are correct, in the sense that many people are saying that LLMs help them code twice or 5 or 20 or 100 times as fast, but we don't see stuff being produced twice or 5 or 20 or 100 times as fast.

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