Description: This market resolves to YES if the government of Brazil officially reinstates visa-free entry for United States citizens for tourism/business purposes at any point between 1 January 2026 and December 31, 2026.
It resolves to NO if the eVisa (or a traditional visa) remains mandatory for US citizens throughout the entirety of 2026.
Context:
Current Status: Since April 10, 2025, US citizens require an eVisa to enter Brazil.
Legislative Uncertainty: The Brazilian Senate has previously voted to suspend this new measure, but that requires approval from the Chamber of Deputies and presidential sanction/veto considerations to become law.
2026 Outlook: Current consular guidance states that throughout 2026, "You cannot just show up with a USA passport anymore when travel to Brazil."
This market tracks if that policy holds or is overturned.
Resolution Criteria:
Revocation: Defined as the official ability for a US citizen tourist to enter Brazil with only a passport (no prior eVisa/consular visa application required).
Temporary Suspension: Even a temporary suspension of the requirement counts as a "Yes" if it is official and implemented.
Current Policy Snapshot (market context)
Before 2019: Visa Required (Reciprocity).
2019–2024: Visa Free (Unilateral waiver by Brazil).
since April 10, 2025 – Present: eVisa Required (Reinstated due to lack of reciprocity from US).
Why this is a good market
While the requirement is technically "active," the political pressure in Brazil (from the tourism sector and the Senate) to remove it is high. A prediction market captures the probability of the Brazilian Congress overriding the Foreign Ministry's reciprocity policy.
As of 2025, holders of a United States passport may travel to 180 countries and territories without a travel visa, or with a visa on arrival.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visa_requirements_for_United_States_citizens
resolving on changing of positive: "1. Freedom of movement
2.Visa not required / ETA
3.Visa available both on arrival or online
4. Visa on arrival"
or negative "eVisa
Visa required
Travel restricted (either by local law or US regulations)
related market: https://manifold.markets/CancelTheBorders/how-many-un-recognized-states-will
1,000