How many UN recognized states will cancel the borders for USA citizens in 2026?
6
100Ṁ115
2026
20%
(negative number) <-1
62%
-1 - 0 +1 (same or slightly same) - minor changes
19%
> +1 == positive number - countries canceling the borders for USA citizens

As of 2025, holders of a United States passport may travel to 180 countries and territories without a travel visa, or with a visa on arrival.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visa_requirements_for_United_States_citizens

resolving on changing of positive: "1. Freedom of movement

  2.Visa not required / ETA

  3.Visa available both on arrival or online

  4. Visa on arrival"

or negative "1. eVisa

  2. Visa required

  3. Travel restricted (either by local law or US regulations)

  • Update 2025-12-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Baseline count as of December 20, 2025: 106 countries where visa is not required for US citizens.

The market will resolve based on changes from this baseline during 2026. Countries moving from the "Visa Not Required" category to any other category (eVisa, Visa Required, etc.) will count as cancellations. Countries moving into the "Visa Not Required" category from other categories will count as negative cancellations (reducing the total count).

related market: https://manifold.markets/CancelTheBorders/will-brazil-revoke-the-new-evisa-re

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as of 20 december 2025: Based on the data provided, here is the statistical breakdown and list of visa requirements for United States citizens visiting sovereign countries.

Statistical Summary

There are 193 sovereign entities listed in the primary analysis.

  • Visa Not Required: 106 countries

  • Electronic Authorization / Visa on Arrival: 68 countries

  • Visa Required (Embassy) / Restricted: 19 countries

1. Visa Not Required (106 Countries)

United States citizens can enter these destinations with just a valid passport (and sometimes an entry card filled out upon arrival) for the duration listed.

Americas (28): Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bolivia, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Grenada, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay.

Europe (41): Albania, Andorra, Armenia, Austria, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine, United Kingdom (Listed as ETA in table, but currently allows 6 months; note that ETA is being rolled out), Vatican City.

Asia (17): Brunei, Israel (ETA required starting 2025), Japan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Malaysia, Mongolia, Oman, Palestine, Philippines, Qatar, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Tajikistan, Thailand, United Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan.

Africa (14): Angola, Botswana, Central African Republic (Table lists "Required", but text notes advise against travel; listed in Required below), Eswatini, Lesotho, Malawi, Mauritius, Morocco, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, South Africa, Tunisia, Zambia. (Note: Angola and Malawi recently shifted to visa-free regimes).

Oceania (6): Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Palau, Vanuatu.

2. Electronic Authorization / Visa on Arrival (68 Countries)

These destinations require action either online before travel (eVisa, eTA) or processing upon landing (VOA).

Electronic Travel Authorization / eVisa (42):

  • Africa: Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Côte d'Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Guinea, Kenya, Libya, Mauritania, Mozambique, Nigeria, São Tomé and Príncipe, South Sudan, Togo, Uganda.

  • Americas: Brazil, Cuba (Tourist Card/eVisa).

  • Asia: Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bhutan, Cambodia, India, Iraq, Kuwait, Laos, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Sri Lanka, Syria, Vietnam.

  • Europe: Belarus (eVisa), Russia (eVisa listed, see warnings below), Turkey.

  • Oceania: Australia (ETA), New Zealand (ETA), Papua New Guinea.

Visa on Arrival / Hybrid (26):

  • Africa: Burundi, Comoros, Egypt, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Madagascar, Namibia, Rwanda, Seychelles (Electronic Border System), Sierra Leone, Somalia, Tanzania, Zimbabwe.

  • Asia: Bangladesh, Indonesia, Jordan, Lebanon, Maldives, Timor-Leste.

  • Oceania: Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu.

3. Visa Required / Restricted (19 Countries)

Travelers must obtain a physical visa from an embassy or consulate prior to travel, or entry is suspended/restricted.

  • Afghanistan: Visa required.

  • Algeria: Visa required.

  • Central African Republic: Visa required.

  • Chad: Admission suspended (as of June 5, 2025).

  • China: Visa required (10-year visas available).

  • Republic of the Congo: Visa required.

  • Eritrea: Visa required (Permit required to leave capital).

  • Ghana: Visa required.

  • Iran: Visa required.

  • Liberia: Visa required.

  • Mali: Visa required.

  • Nauru: Visa required.

  • Niger: Visa required.

  • North Korea: Travel restricted by U.S. government (Passport validation required).

  • Russia: Visa required (Note: While eVisa is technically listed, travel advisories are severe, and traditional visas are often used for longer stays).

  • Sudan: Visa required (Travel permit required for travel more than 25 kilometers outside Khartoum).

  • Turkmenistan: Visa required.

  • Venezuela: Visa required.

  • Yemen: Visa required.

Notable Territory Requirements

Certain territories have different rules than their sovereign states:

  • Svalbard (Norway): Visa not required (Unlimited stay).

  • Hong Kong (China): Visa not required (90 days).

  • Macau (China): Visa not required (30 days).

  • French Guiana (France): Visa not required (3 months).

  • Gibraltar (UK): Visa not required.

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