Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, on or before December 31, 2026 (11:59 PM UTC), the government of Brazil officially announces its withdrawal from the BRICS organization or formally ceases its membership or participation in the bloc.

The resolution will be determined by official public statements from the Brazilian Presidency, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Itamaraty), or other authorized government channels. Confirmatory reporting from major international news outlets (such as Reuters, Associated Press, or Bloomberg) will be used to verify the announcement.

If Brazil remains a member of BRICS and has not officially announced its withdrawal or ceased participation by the end of December 31, 2026, the market will resolve to NO.

Background

Brazil is one of the founding architects of the BRICS grouping, which held its inaugural summit in 2009. Under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil hosted the 17th BRICS Summit in Rio de Janeiro in July 2025. However, Brazil's participation in the bloc has become a point of domestic political debate. Ahead of Brazil's October 2026 presidential election, conservative figures, including some aligned with the Liberal Party, have expressed a preference for reassessing Brazil's BRICS membership in favor of stronger bilateral relations with the United States and other Western allies.

This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to Yes if, on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, the government of Brazil officially announces its withdrawal from the BRICS organization or formally ceases its membership/participation in the bloc. Otherwise, it will resolve to No.

Resolution will be determined based on official public statements from the Brazilian Presidency (Planalto), the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Itamaraty), or other authorized official government channels. Confirmatory reporting from major international news outlets (such as Reuters, Associated Press, or Bloomberg) will be used to verify the announcement.

If Brazil remains a member of BRICS and has not officially announced its withdrawal or ceased participation by the cutoff date, the market will resolve to No.

Background

Brazil is a founding member of the BRICS grouping and hosted the 17th BRICS Summit in Rio de Janeiro in July 2025. Brazil's role in the organization has been a point of focus during the October 2026 presidential election, which features a competitive contest between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (who favors a Global South-oriented foreign policy and strategic autonomy) and conservative Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. While a conservative administration under Bolsonaro may seek closer alignment with the United States and Western institutions, analysts debate whether Brazil would completely withdraw from BRICS due to structural economic ties, particularly its trade relationship with China.

This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.