I'll attend manifest, and he is too. I'll try to convince him that p(doom) > 5% and that managing AI-risk should be one of this top 2 policy priorities. If I succeed this will resolve YES, else it resolves NO.

It will resolve N/A if either:

1) He doesn't attend (maybe 10% chance based on my quick analysis)

2) I don't attend (~7% chance I'd say)

3) I'm not able to talk to him for more than 5 minutes despite a strong effort. (I'll try using the waypoint app to schedule a meeting, will look around for him physically in the conference and try to talk with him, and if he does any kind of open-mic event I'll try my best to get in there).

My own estimate that I'd be able to do this conditional on > 5 minute meeting time with around 50% probability.

I think I'm fairly persuasive, I think I know what arguments are likely to be persuasive to him, and I think in previous discussions about this idea he has seemed open-minded to the idea (although disinterested in talking about it).

To make the resolution objective, I'll specifically ask him if he agrees p(doom) is >= 5% and whether he agrees managing AI-risk should be a top 2% national policy priority, regardless of how the conversation goes, as long as it lasts more than 5minutes..