Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Apple announces a foldable, pocketable, SIM/eSIM-enabled device that is explicitly positioned as a primary mobile phone and is not branded under the iPhone name, regardless of whether it is intended to replace the iPhone in practice.

The announcement must be confirmed by:

• an official Apple press release or statement (e.g., Apple Newsroom or Investor Relations), or

• reporting by a highly credible financial news outlet (Bloomberg, Reuters, or Associated Press) confirming that such a product has been announced.

This market resolves NO if any of the following occur:

• Apple announces a foldable phone branded as an iPhone

• Apple announces no foldable phone at all by the end of 2026

• Apple announces only a foldable tablet, laptop, wearable, or companion device

Clarifications / explicit exclusions

The following do NOT resolve this market as YES:

• A foldable iPad (even with cellular connectivity, phone calling, or eSIM)

• A foldable MacBook or other computer

• A foldable device framed as secondary, companion, or accessory hardware

A teaser, hint, or rumor without a clear affirmative product announcement is not sufficient to resolve YES.

• Update 2026-01-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Mutual exclusivity with companion market:

  • A companion market exists asking whether Apple announces a foldable iPhone by the end of 2026

  • Only one of these two markets can resolve YES

  • If Apple announces a foldable device framed as part of the iPhone product line or as a successor/replacement for the iPhone, the companion market resolves YES and this market resolves NO

  • If Apple announces no foldable phone by the end of 2026, both markets resolve NO