Any type of foldable phone launched by Apple will resolve to Yes. Update 2025-10-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "Launched" means the foldable phone must be available to purchase in 2026 (not just announced).

Almost certainly — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 99% chance (30 traders, as of Sep 19, 2026).

Will Apple launch foldable phones in 2026?

Will Apple launch foldable phones in 2026?

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Dec 31

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Any type of foldable phone launched by Apple will resolve to Yes.

Update 2025-10-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "Launched" means the foldable phone must be available to purchase in 2026 (not just announced).

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What does launch mean? Announced? Shipping in 2026?

@FlorianN6sA - Launched means available to purchase