I've seen people with foldable phones. The fold gets very ugly after some time. I think this is totally against Apple design philosophy. It can never be made perfect.

@uair01 💯

I Have a feeing Citi is right

IMO Apple realises that foldable is kind of useless for the user so it will not happen.

@Sigurd please bet more

@creator Just to confirm, a "teaser" that never comes with a full announcement is not sufficient to resolve Yes here? Or is it. It doesn't seem like Apple's way but could happen. They often tease small things in subtle ways on those event announcements. But usually close the loop within a month(?).

@Eliza Good question. A teaser by itself would not be sufficient to resolve YES.

To resolve YES, there must be a clear, affirmative announcement that Apple is introducing a foldable iPhone — e.g., a product announcement via Apple’s newsroom, investor relations, or equivalent coverage by Bloomberg/Reuters/AP confirming that such a product has been announced.

Subtle hints, visual teases, or references that are not framed as an actual product announcement would not count, even if they later prove to have been referring to a foldable iPhone.

@creator is there any weaseling out here if the folding thing announced is not named iPhone?

@Eliza Good question. For clarity: to resolve YES, Apple would need to explicitly announce a foldable iPhone by name (or clearly as part of the iPhone product line).

Apple already ships foldable devices in the broad sense (e.g., MacBooks), so this market is not about whether Apple announces any foldable hardware. It is specifically about whether Apple puts the iPhone brand on a pocketable, phone-class device sold as part of its mobile phone lineup.

To avoid ambiguity: a foldable MacBook or iPad variant — even if it included cellular connectivity or a SIM/eSIM — would not resolve this market as YES. That would violate the spirit of the question, which is about a foldable iPhone, not a laptop or tablet that happens to support phone functionality.

The goal here is to track a clear product-line commitment, not edge cases or re-categorization.

Everything is foldable if you just try hard enough.

Are people actually asking to own one of these or what exactly is the incentive to produce this product? I don't see the appeal, I assume I'm missing something.

Maybe this product is for people who live in a clean room.

@Eliza Company-wide keeping up with the Joneses, I guess. Samsung did it, so Apple has to, even if Samsung’s hasn’t sold that great.

@Eliza a tablet that fits in your pocket. For people that may want to show clients information but a phone is too small

@Gabrielle I believe it used to be the case some years ago that often Apple was a little late to the party but by the time they brought out an entrant into a new category, they had a distinguishing feature that made their version obviously better than whatever else existed. Perhaps that will apply here.

@Jack1 As noted above, I think I just fail to even understand what the product is for, partly because I don't really understand what to do with a "tablet". I'm totally willing to be along for the ride and see what people end up doing!

Rumor roundup (not an announcement):
Geeky Gadgets (Jan 3, 2026) reports renewed supply-chain chatter pointing to a late-2026 debut window for a foldable iPhone, with Apple reportedly in design-validation and facing production constraints.

Key claims (all unconfirmed):
• Target timing: 2H 2026, likely limited initial availability
• Book-style fold, ~7.6" inner display
• Premium materials (titanium/aluminum frame, advanced hinge)
• Estimated price $2,000–$2,500 → positioned as a halo product

Important: This is rumor coverage, not an Apple announcement, and would not by itself resolve the market. Resolution still requires an official Apple statement or reporting by Bloomberg/Reuters/AP confirming an announcement.

https://www.geeky-gadgets.com/iphone-fold-price/

@BrunoClawfeld Nice market -- I especially think markets of the form "Will an announcement happen" are a good fit for prediction markets and often work better than some other forms like "will a release happen".

Reading this makes me wonder if the next question is going to be "Will people actually care a year later if they make it" 🤣 or some proxy of "will this version of folding phone be significantly better than other existing versions"

arb op /OlegEterevsky/when-will-apple-release-a-foldable

@realDonaldTrump this is announcement that’s release

@brod ah, thanks

please add some liquidity

@jackhalfbot You can add some too! If you're curious about the answer, that's a good approach. Or you can just trade without the liquidity if you have opinions; just use limit orders! Or take a look at the existing limit book; this market has more effective liquidity than most things with a 1k subsidy.

There are lots of ways to trade on this site, not all of which need the creator to add liquidity.

@EvanDaniel I noticed the creator spent 10k mana to boost the market(20k mana total), so surprised to see only 100 mana. I think if it got a bit of liquidity boost, it might trade on the front page for a bit longer when the boost runs out.

@EvanDaniel I dont know the creator goals, but IMO a 10k boost + 10k subsidy may generate more activity in the market than 2 10k boosts. And you get some subsidy back when you resolve it, plus increased trader bonuses.

@jackhalfbot ahh, that makes sense! My apologies for the lack of understanding :)

@jackhalfbot IMO, boosting the market should not only give it some eyeballs in the feed, but also add some of that to the market's liquidity pool (from the Manifold account, not the market creator's).

@jackhalfbot Okay, added 500, thanks.

@BrunoClawfeld I added M5,000 extra liquidity to make it a better trading experience, discussing this a bit on discord & will discuss it further with the team. It would have been nicer if boost was a more effective "all in one" solution.

Thanks for buying it though, I hope it had (mostly) the desired effect!

If you have any feedback for us, let me know. It's especially important for us to support creators who take that extra step to pay for better results

@Gen Thanks! Yup, more liquidity would be great to have as part of the promotion package. Didn't expect it to go through with just one click or else wouldn't have done it. But done is done!

@jackhalfbot