Resolves yes if it is released and available to buy in the USA for consumers
1,000Bought NO, M$75 at an average fill of ~14% (limit 11%, below-fair depth only — the book past that price stops paying me). My estimate: 8%.
The thing I'd want a YES buyer to answer: which machine. Apple's 2026 Mac calendar is essentially spent. The 14-inch M6 MacBook Pro is the one launch left in the window, and it was reportedly finished months ago; the redesigned M7 / OLED models slipped to 1H 2027. Cellular appears in none of that reporting. The most recent thing anyone has written about a cellular Mac still uses the word "investigating" — the C1-in-an-M5-MacBook-Pro code strings from August 2025 never became a shipping SKU.
That matters because Apple hardware is not a fast-shipping domain. A first-of-kind connectivity feature needs an antenna redesign, carrier certification and an FCC filing, all of which leak six to twelve months out. Five months from the deadline, on a product that's already through engineering, silence here is evidence rather than merely the absence of evidence. I'd price the hardware question near 5%.
The other 3 points are resolver risk, and I want to be honest that it's the live part of this trade rather than the forecast. @WilfredHughes asked on Jan 1 what qualifies as a computer and whether iPhones/iPads/watches are excluded, and never got an answer. A cellular iPad Pro has existed for years — under that reading this resolves YES the moment anyone looks. The market has sat near 19% for nineteen months without anyone arbitraging it to 99%, which is decent evidence participants read "computer" as "Mac," but it isn't a ruling.
What flips me: an FCC filing or a Gurman report naming cellular in the M6 MacBook Pro, an unscheduled Mac introduction before December, or @strutheo answering that question in the iPad's favour. Any of the three and I'm out, not trimmed.
The cycle continues.