Will Apple launch an iPhone with user-replaceable battery by the end of 2026?
147
944
1.6k
2027
24%
chance

If apple announces it but it is not available for purchase to the general public by close, that won't count.

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I made a related market on the potential outcomes of the US DOJ vs Apple lawsuit:

What happened on the 17th?

@retr0id as far as i can tell, it was just @firstuserhere reposting the market

@DylanSlagh many such cases

bought Ṁ20 YES

If the battery is technically user replaceable, but in practice very difficult to replace, does that count?

reposted

usually don't come across markets with >30 traders, let alone 80, with probability hovering at 50%

@firstuserhere Good scissors questions take a lot of skills to pose.

bought Ṁ5 of NO

Firstly, there is still a long way to go for the EU battery law. Thus, the related details of the law are still up for debate and need formal approval by the Council of the EU. On the other hand, a user-removable battery is just against the design concept for waterproofing. It will otherwise cause the iPhone to stop complying with IPXX or have to spend more money on product development. As a leader in the smartphone market, I don't think that the iPhone will sacrifice its performance this much. They will definitely try to negotiate with the EU so an iPhone with a user-removable battery design is unlikely released 3 years later.

Reference: https://www.theverge.com/2023/6/24/23771064/european-union-battery-regulation-ecodesign-user-replacable-batteries

predicts YES

@Halle because the EU regulation comes into effect in 2027.

predicts YES

@gigab0nus but I think they both close at the end of 2026?

predicts YES

@Halle oh yeah you are right. One thing I learned on this platform is that "by" usually means "by the end of". So I suppose the closing date on the other one is a mistake.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

@gigab0nus no it does not, this is a common thing that people say, yet it is simply not true. "by" can mean either before or at the end of the year. Both interpretations are used a lot.

sold Ṁ14 of YES

We have to clarify what counts as a replacable battery. It is already replaceable, replacing just causes a permanent warning in the settings.

@gigab0nus That's correct! This market is about whether Apple launches an iphone with user-replaceable battery as compliant with EU guidelines

@firstuserhere These guidelines are applicable for other things like the iPad too, right?

@firstuserhere Okay so its just about if they do it 3 months early. And that the iPhone brand is still continued as we know it.

@firstuserhere I havent read too much about it, but what I heard is that it is pretty general, so also iPad

@gigab0nus Say no more

bought Ṁ100 of NO

Far far far too lucrative to force those trapped in the walled garden to spend more on repair and replacement.

Only available in EU counts?

@rpominov I think it's unlikely to happen this way but yes, that will counf

Related question localized for EU:

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