Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, between June 1, 2026, and October 4, 2026 (the scheduled date of the first round of the Brazilian general election), the United States federal government officially announces a new tariff that specifically targets Brazil or Brazilian-origin products. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.

To qualify:

• Official Announcement: The announcement must be officially published by a U.S. government executive office or agency (such as on whitehouse.gov, federalregister.gov, ustr.gov, or via official executive orders and presidential proclamations). Unofficial media leaks, rumors, or campaign rally statements do not qualify.
  

• New Tariff: The tariff must be a newly announced measure, or a new country-specific tariff escalation, that is not already in effect or officially scheduled as of June 1, 2026. Routine administrative adjustments, ongoing litigation updates, or court-mandated reinstatements of pre-existing tariffs do not qualify.
  

• Targeting Brazilian Products: The tariff must explicitly single out Brazil by name or target specific Brazilian-origin goods (e.g., Brazilian agricultural products, steel, or manufacturing). Broad, universal tariffs applied to all foreign imports globally (such as a baseline global tariff under Section 122) will not count unless Brazil is explicitly singled out for a unique, additional, or higher tariff rate.
  

• Timeframe: The announcement must occur after June 1, 2026, and before October 4, 2026, at 11:59 PM Brasilia Time (UTC-3).

Background

Context:
U.S.–Brazil trade relations have become a politically sensitive issue ahead of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election. The Trump administration has previously used tariffs and tariff threats against Brazilian goods, while U.S. trade authorities have also investigated Brazilian policies related to digital trade, tariffs, ethanol market access, intellectual property, anti-corruption enforcement, and deforestation. This market asks whether trade tensions escalate again before Brazilians vote in the 2026 presidential election.