Criteria for "launching to space" are as follows (the same as this market):
Any Starships that make it over 100 km in altitude are counted, even if they don't make it to orbit.
Launches that don't make it over 100 km don't count.
If the same Starship is launched twice, then it counts twice.
If a Starship briefly makes it below 100km and then rises above it again, for example through a skip-reentry, this does not count twice as it's not an additional launch.
If a Superheavy is launched over 100km by itself without a Starship, then it counts as a Starship.
Update 2023-11-18: Ok, seems the launch today made it to around 148km, which is over 100km. This market will therefore resolve based on whether 100 km launches happen twice more by 2024-09-13.
Update 2024-03-14: Launch today again made it over 100km. Only one more launch required.
Related questions
@NGK I'm not going to take that, but it's tempting. Assuming you have some margin between that and your true credence, I think you're a little too pessimistic. I've made a YES limit order at 75% if you're interested.
@chrisjbillington 75% is a bit low for me haha. I think it definitely does sit between 80-90% chance. Im not necessarily doubting they launch twice by September.
My internal calculation is assuming that between the low probability they don’t launch twice, and the low probability there’s a pad anomaly preventing it from reaching 100km. I think between these two possibilities there’s a chance.
I read someone’s comment a few days back about the risk free rate on manifold is about 95% (unsure how true this is, but I’ll take them at their word). Then I definitely think this market sits below that.
Clock's ticking! 300 days from today is Friday, 13 September 2024. Ah nice you already updated the market close date.
Anyway, easy Yes :)
@NGK Chris ate it, but also I think I'm good for now until we get a bit more info. IFT3 in January, February, I'm hoping.
@Mqrius I hope so. I think it mostly depends on how they tackle the hot staging for IFT3 I would think. I remember the live cast saying something about the pressure on the booster top dome. We’ll see in the next few weeks/months I guess.
@NGK Hot staging didn't go off without a hitch, but didn't prevent Starship getting to space. And the priority is launching, full stop - so I don't think they're going to hold back any launches to implement staging changes. If a change isn't implemented in time or is tricky to retrofit to an existing booster, they'll just launch old hardware as is and implement the changes in future boosters. Every launch teaches them so much that they're going to be very hesitant to do anything that would slow the launch cadence.
@Mqrius Yeah if anything I would think the events of the test flight should cause this to adjust up. SpaceX will have more experience when they do get their first one to space.