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MANIFOLD
Will these people ever be FIDE world chess champion? (end mid 2044)
27
Ṁ1.1kṀ3.1k
2044
66%
Javokhir Sindarov
34%
Yağız Kaan Erdoğmuş
31%
R Praggnanandhaa
25%
Alireza Firouzja
18%
Fabi
12%
Ian Nepomniachtchi
11%
Hikaru Nakamura
11%
Giri
8%
Wesley So
6%
A woman
Resolved
YES
Someone under 40 at the time of gaining the title
Resolved
YES
Dommaraju Gukesh

Such a person will be crowned FIDE world chess champion some time from April 1 2024 onwards.

End date: mid 2044

Please add answers where betting on them might be useful and interesting. If it's unclear, please explain. If they don't make sense I may be forced to delete.

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Chess candidates 2024
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@Ernie He died, resolves No.

@Eliza I was such a huge fan of his explainer videos and his whole approach to the game. What a shame. RIP Daniel Naroditsky

bought Ṁ151 YES

@creator Gukesh and "Someone under 40" resolve YES.

It would be much more surprising for someone over 40 to be the champion.

bought Ṁ25 YES

Even Kasparov didn't make it past 40.

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bought Ṁ40 YES

Can this ever resolve NO?

@BoltonBailey It resolves no if no one under 40 is champion until mid 2044

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