Since 2013, Tesla has grown revenue on average 50% per year. Their target is to continue growing deliveries at 50% per year until 2030. They are on track to deliver 1.8-2 million vehicles this year.

Assuming they undershoot and only grow by 30% to 40% through 2026, that would give a range of 4 million (1.8 million * 1.3^3) to 5.5 million (2 million * 1.4^3 ) vehicles produced in 2026.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/502208/tesla-quarterly-vehicle-deliveries/

1.3 million in 2022. 935k in 2021. 500k in 2020. 300k in 2019.