Trump Presidential Candidate Status over the '24 and '28 elections.
Basic
5
Ṁ833resolved Nov 6
100%86%
Trump nominated in '24 and wins
1.8%
Trump nominated in '24 and loses, then nominated in '28 and wins
1.8%
Trump nominated in '24 and loses, then nominated in '28 and loses
5%
Trump nominated in '24 and loses, not nominated in '28
1.8%
Trump not nominated in '24, then nominated in '28 and wins
1.8%
Trump not nominated in '24, then nominated in '28 and loses
1.8%
Trump not nominated in '24 or '28.
This market is a joint market over Donald Trump's status in the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections: Whether he is nominated by the Republican Party convention and whether he wins when nominated.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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