Will Donald Trump be the Republican party nominee in the 2028 US presidential election?
Will Donald Trump be the Republican party nominee in the 2028 US presidential election?
44
1kṀ44852029
4%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
Seems somewhat undervalued. If Trump wins, don't you think he'd run for another term? He's only barred from serving more than two consecutive terms, after all.
@AndrewHartman That's not true. Presidents can't serve more than two terms, period. It doesn't matter if they're consecutive or not.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Who will be the Republican nominee for president in 2028?
Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2028?
6% chance
Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee in 2028?
6% chance
Who will be the Republican nominee for President in 2028?
Will Donald Trump run in the 2028 United States presidential election?
6% chance
Will Donald Trump be elected President in 2028?
5% chance
Will Donald Trump be the Republican party nominee in the 2032 US presidential election?
3% chance
Will Donald Trump be on a major presidential ticket in 2028?
5% chance
Will the Republican presidential candidate endorsed by Trump win the 2028 Republican primaries?
76% chance
Will Trump's vice president candidate in 2024 be chosen as the Republican Party's nominee in 2028?
44% chance