I think this is a good measure of how much influence Trump/MAGA will have on the future of the Republican party. Will Trump endorse a candidate for the primaries who goes on to win the primary and become the 2028 Republican presidential candidate?
Some potential resolution cases:
Trump does not endorse a candidate: N/A
Trump runs himself and wins: Yes
Trump endorses a third party candidate who becomes a serious candidate but does not win the Republican primary: No
Trump endorses a Republican candidate who loses the primary: No
Update 2026-02-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Multiple endorsement scenario: If Trump endorses a candidate who drops out and then endorses another candidate, the market will resolve based on the first endorsement Trump makes.
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@Jack1 hmm, that’s a good question. My interest in the question is how much influence Trump maintains over the Republican party/nomination process. If the first Trump endorsement is “unsuccessful” enough that they drop out and he endorses another candidate, I’m leaning towards “No” capturing that signal more accurately. If we think this outcome is very both unlikely and a concern for you, I could see an argument for N/A.
Do you have a strong preference either way? Any other @traders?