Will Polio make a comeback in the US in 2025?
14
200Ṁ1653
Dec 31
10%
chance

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if there are at least five confirmed cases of polio (either wild poliovirus or vaccine-derived poliovirus) in the United States during the 2025 calendar year.

Background

The United States has been officially polio-free since 1979, when the last case of wild poliovirus was reported. However, in recent years, there have been concerning developments:

  • In 2022, a case of vaccine-derived poliovirus was identified in New York state, and subsequent wastewater surveillance detected poliovirus in multiple counties

  • Vaccination rates have declined in some communities, creating potential vulnerability to outbreaks

  • Globally, polio remains endemic in Afghanistan and Pakistan, with recent outbreaks in countries like Malawi and Mozambique

Considerations

  • The U.S. primarily uses inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV), which prevents disease but doesn't stop transmission as effectively as the oral vaccine

  • CDC and public health authorities maintain surveillance systems to detect poliovirus in wastewater and clinical samples

  • For context, a comeback of five or more cases would represent a significant public health event, as the U.S. has averaged zero indigenous cases for over four decades

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