Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" for each month in which President Donald Trump's average approval rating surpasses that of President Richard Nixon during the corresponding month of his second term.

Approval ratings will be sourced from Gallup polls, which have consistently tracked presidential approval ratings over time. If Gallop publishes multiple polls in a month, the average will be used. If Gallup data is unavailable for a specific month, the market will resolve to "N/A" for that month. Months will be resolved when all the polls for the month are published and available. Months will not be reresolved even if Gallop revised the numbers.

Background

Richard Nixon began his second term in January 1973 with an approval rating of 67%. However, his approval declined sharply due to the Watergate scandal, reaching 48% by April 1973 and plummeting to 24% by August 1974, when he resigned from office. (pewresearch.org) In June 1973 his approval rating was 44%. (ucsb.edu)

Donald Trump commenced his second term in January 2025 with an approval rating of 47%. As of June 2025, his approval rating stands at 42%. (forbes.com)

Considerations

• Data Availability: Gallup's historical approval ratings for Nixon are well-documented, but real-time data for Trump's second term may be subject to delays or revisions.

• Polling Variability: Approval ratings can fluctuate due to various factors, including political events, economic conditions, and international developments.

• Comparative Context: While both presidents faced significant challenges during their second terms, the political and social contexts differ, which may influence approval ratings.