🇺🇸 Will the first woman to become President of the United States be a Republican or a Democrat?
35
1.4kṀ21922049
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
49%
Democrat
50%
Republican
0.9%
neither
The close date is arbitrary; either I or a moderator will extend the close date as needed until a woman becomes president of the United States.
For purposes of this market, "woman" is someone who identifies as a woman at the time of the respective event. If a politician became President of the United States as a man and then identified as transgender after leaving the Presidency, then that would not satisfy the requirement (unless they were to regain the presidency).
I will not bet in this market.
Update 2025-06-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market resolves for the first woman to become president, not necessarily the first to be elected. A Vice President who assumes the office via succession counts.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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