Will a LLM considerably more powerful than GPT-4 come out in 2023?
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1.6kṀ29kresolved Jan 2
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I'm looking for ideas for how to operationalize this question.
Hopefully the answer will be pretty obvious, but if it's not, my current plan is to set up a poll here on Manifold, or on Twitter. The main problem would be if a model does somewhat better than GPT-4 on most metrics, but that its qualitative behavior is not noticeably better, in which case I'll probably resolve NO.
GPT-4.5 would not count, but a non-GPT-4 LLM that is less powerful than a 2023-produced GPT-4.5 but more powerful than the current GPT-4 would.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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