@BigJohnisBack Resolves yes!

@Joshua Big John is not back.

Tweet from a washington-based journalist yesterday:

“Nikki Haley declared making ‘no plans’ for after Super Tuesday “

The only rational reason I could see Haley staying in the race after Super Tuesday loss is if she believes Trump will be barred from running due to a Supreme Court ruling:
https://www.nbcnews.com/investigations/constitution-not-keep-trump-2024-ballot-rcna137798

@schlongenheim The markets for this are mixed:
https://manifold.markets/DanMan314/will-scotus-reverse-the-colorado-su
https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-the-supreme-court-make-any-dec

https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-supreme-court-rule-90-over

From
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/24/upshot/haley-trump-south-carolina.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

“Together, Mr. Trump could easily win more than 90 percent of the delegates at stake on Super Tuesday on March 5, when nearly half of all delegates to the Republican convention will be awarded. That would put him just a hair short of winning the nomination and poised to clinch the nomination over the following week or two”

South Carolina is next week, super Tuesday 3/5… as Nikki loses more and more states her position to keep running will become ever less tenable. She’s said she wants to go at least till super Tuesday. I don’t think she‘ll be able to be still credibly in the race by 3/16.

@BigJohnisBack ever or within 1 month?

@mattyb mar 16th 2024