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Damn, I did not see this market. That would have been a nice bet the last couple of days. I think anything below 10 % was for sure too low (although that's easy to say after the fact).

@howtodowtle Even pre-race, I actually think it should have been 30 % at least.

Since 2000 there have been 7 men's WRs and 1 women's WR set at the Berlin Marathon. This makes an average of one WR every 2.75 years.

Over the entire history of the Berlin Marathon, it's one WR every 4.36 years, but I think it's reasonable to assume that the more established an event is, the more world-class runners will show up, so a ~35% probability is more reasonable.

The men's side bears this out (the last 7 men's WRs were set in Berlin, though still not anywhere nearly as often as would make me bet YES), but the women's game interestingly does not — Chicago and London are women's world record marathons are run.

(I don't actually know anything about running or marathons.)