Will a new world record be set at the 2022 Berlin Marathon?
11
17
แน€100
resolved Sep 26
Resolved
YES

Get แน€200 play money

Related questions

๐Ÿ… Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1แน€360
2แน€34
3แน€0
4แน€0
6 Comments
8 Holders
368 Trades
Sort by:
bought แน€10 of YES

Damn, I did not see this market. That would have been a nice bet the last couple of days. I think anything below 10 % was for sure too low (although that's easy to say after the fact).

predicted YES

@howtodowtle Even pre-race, I actually think it should have been 30 % at least.

bought แน€20 of NO

Since 2000 there have been 7 men's WRs and 1 women's WR set at the Berlin Marathon. This makes an average of one WR every 2.75 years.

predicted NO

Over the entire history of the Berlin Marathon, it's one WR every 4.36 years, but I think it's reasonable to assume that the more established an event is, the more world-class runners will show up, so a ~35% probability is more reasonable.

predicted NO

The men's side bears this out (the last 7 men's WRs were set in Berlin, though still not anywhere nearly as often as would make me bet YES), but the women's game interestingly does not โ€” Chicago and London are women's world record marathons are run.

predicted NO

(I don't actually know anything about running or marathons.)

Related questions