This is the strongest and most consequential market in the series. It asks whether Gustavo Petro will ultimately receive a prison sentence as a result of a criminal conviction before the beginning of 2028.

A conviction alone would not be sufficient. The court must actually impose a sentence that includes imprisonment.

Resolution criteria:

• YES: If a competent court sentences Gustavo Petro to a term of imprisonment before January 1, 2028.

• NO: If he is not sentenced to imprisonment by that date.
  

A criminal investigation, charge, indictment, trial, conviction without imprisonment, fine, probation, house arrest, or other non-prison sentence does not qualify.

If a prison sentence is imposed but later suspended or converted into another form of punishment, the market should resolve according to the actual sentence formally imposed by the court, provided that it qualifies as a prison sentence under the applicable law.

Resolution sources: Official court records and reputable news organizations.

Deadline: December 31, 2027.