Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, prior to January 1, 2030, 00:00 UTC, Nicolás Maduro is convicted and sentenced to life imprisonment by a court of competent jurisdiction (such as a U.S. federal court, the International Criminal Court, or a national judicial authority).

This market resolves to NO if any of the following occur prior to the cutoff:

• He is convicted but receives a sentence other than life imprisonment (e.g., a term of years).

• Legal proceedings conclude in an acquittal, dismissal of charges, or pardon before a life sentence is rendered.

• He dies prior to receiving a life sentence.

• Legal proceedings remain pending, unadjudicated, or at trial without a formal life sentence having been handed down by December 31, 2029, 23:59 UTC.

Background

In March 2020, the U.S. Department of Justice unsealed federal indictments charging Nicolás Maduro and several senior Venezuelan officials with narco-terrorism, drug trafficking, and corruption. Separately, the International Criminal Court (ICC) opened a formal investigation in November 2021 to examine alleged crimes against humanity committed in Venezuela.