Background

On 2025-09-11, Brazil’s Supreme Court (First Panel) convicted Jair Bolsonaro in a landmark coup-plot case and set a sentence of 27 years and 3 months. The reported vote was 4–1, with lengthy opinions connecting the conviction to efforts to overturn the 2022 election. 🏛️

Even with a headline sentence, custody status can shift during appeals and sentence execution in Brazil. Early phases may involve special accommodations, transfers, and moves among closed, semi-open, and open regimes. This market doesn’t adjudicate politics; it measures a single empirical variable: days spent sleeping under custodial control in a penal facility.

Brazilian law may grant special cells or a State-Major room (“cela especial” / “sala de Estado-Maior”) to certain defendants. Confinement there is still confinement. Likewise, Federal Police or Civil Police lockups can qualify if they involve overnight custody (“pernoite”). ⚖️

Public debate often blurs house arrest with imprisonment, and semi-open with freedom. To keep trading clean and settlement unambiguous, this market draws bright lines below. 🧭

Resolution criteria

Question. How many calendar days will Bolsonaro spend in jail (as defined below) between 2025-09-11 and 2031-12-31 (inclusive)?

Market type. Multiple answers (independent thresholds). Each option can resolve YES independently as soon as its threshold is met. Options not yet met remain unresolved until met or the market closes.

What counts as “jail”

“Jail” means physical confinement with overnight custody in an officially recognized penal facility. This includes:

- Special cell / State-Major room (“cela especial” / “sala de Estado-Maior”).

- Federal Police or Civil Police lockups if they involve overnight custody (not mere booking or daytime questioning).

- Closed and semi-open regimes when nights are spent in a penitentiary / penal colony / halfway-house-style prison (“colônia penal”, Casa do Albergado). Daytime work/study leave under semi-open does not stop counting as long as nights are under custody.

What does not count

- House arrest (“prisão domiciliar”), with or without electronic monitoring.

- Open regime served at home (counts only if served in Casa do Albergado or equivalent with overnight custody).

- Hospital stays without continuous prison custody (e.g., medical admission while on domiciliary status).

Counting rule

- Count calendar days where any overnight is spent under custodial lodging in a penal facility as 1 day.

- Transfers between units count day by day if an overnight occurs.

- Hospitalization does count if the person is formally under a prison regime and under continuous guard (not domiciliary).

Time window

Sum days between 2025-09-11 and 2031-12-31. Time before 2025-09-11 is ignored.

## Answer options (independent thresholds)

- 0 days — resolves YES at market close only if total days = 0; resolves NO immediately upon the first qualifying overnight.

- 1+ days — resolves YES upon the first qualifying overnight.

- 30+ days — resolves YES upon the 30th qualifying day.

- 180+ days — resolves YES upon the 180th qualifying day.

- 365+ days — resolves YES upon the 365th qualifying day.

- 730+ days — resolves YES upon the 730th qualifying day.

- 1825+ days — resolves YES upon the 1825th qualifying day.

Resolution method & precedence

1) Official judicial/prison records (STF/CNJ/penal-execution courts; DEPEN/state prison authorities; PF).

2) Official judicial communications about custody.

3) High-reliability media (when mutually consistent) to corroborate dates and regimes.

Edge cases

- Amnesty/pardon/acquittal: served days remain; only future accrual halts.

- Exile/fugitive: 0 additional days unless held in a penal facility abroad due crimes commited in Brazil.

- Conversion to house arrest: subsequent days do not count.

- Death before 2031-12-31: resolve relevant thresholds based on accumulated days.

- Ambiguity: creator may delay resolution to secure official documentation; persistent ambiguity resolves to the lower applicable state until ⛓️

Sources

- Reuters — Brazil's Bolsonaro sentenced to 27 years and 3 months after coup-plot conviction: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-bolsonaro-sentenced-27-years-after-landmark-coup-plot-conviction-2025-09-12/

- Associated Press — Supreme Court panel sentences Bolsonaro to more than 27 years: https://apnews.com/article/brazil-bolsonaro-supreme-court-trial-coup-attempt-f95765c36dbbdc3355ad3af0b70eacf6

- The Guardian — Explainer on conviction and what comes next: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/sep/11/jair-bolsonaro-conviction-attempted-coup-what-happens-next-explainer

- Washington Post — Sentenced to over 27 years for coup plot: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/09/11/bolsonaro-convicted-election-plot-assassinations/

- Sky News — Panel sentences Bolsonaro to 27 years and three months: https://news.sky.com/story/jair-bolsonaro-brazils-ex-president-sentenced-to-27-years-in-jail-for-coup-attempt-as-trump-warns-conviction-is-very-bad-for-country-13428791