Will NR or NMN supplementation by proven to promote longevity-related outcomes in healthy adults by 2025?
3
35
110
2026
50%
chance

Nicotinamide Riboside (NR) and Nicotinamide Mononucleotide (NMN) are two substances that are expected to boost NAD+ in humans and other animals.

NAD+ is a crucial molecule that plays a significant role in various essential processes in the human body, and its intermediaries are being explored regarding their potential effects on longevity and aging, including markers of:

  • improved metabolic function, like insulin sensitivity, glucose metabolism, lipid metabolism, and resting energy expenditure.

  • enhanced cardiovascular function, like blood pressure, aortic stiffness, and blood markers of cardiovascular disease risk.

  • skeletal muscle health, like skeletal muscle function and inflammation in older adults.

  • anti-inflammatory properties.

This prediction market will resolve as "YES" if, by the end of the year 2025, a meta-analysis published in a peer-reviewed journal provides statistically significant evidence (p<0.05) of positive effects on at least one of the mentioned aging-related health outcomes in healthy adults through NR and/or NMN supplementation.


Such meta-analysis must pool randomized human clinical studies investigating the effects of NR and NMN supplementation on health outcomes specified above. If no meta-analysis show statistically significant effects on any of the mentioned health outcomes, or if no such meta-analysis is published by the end of 2025, the market will resolve as "NO."

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