Will a frontier model consistently claim it is ASI by end of 2027?
4
Ṁ100Ṁ1242027
18%
chance
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resolves yes if Anthropic's or OpenAI's strongest publicly available AI system consistently claims to be ASI when asked "are you asi?" (no tricks). Also resolves yes if another lab is clearly at the level of Anthropic / openai and its strongest publicly available Ai system consistnently claims to be ASI when asked "are you asi?" (no tricks).
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