Will a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2040?
➕
Plus
29
Ṁ2165
2040
49%
chance

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

Relative to the 2030 version, this should be higher but bounded by the probability of SpaceX surviving that long. No inside information but remember that companies tend to regress to mean, and Elon is spread thin, plus interest rates make for a totally different risk-investment story.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules