Will a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?

Question

From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/

Closes Oct 12, 2025. Expected to resolve around Jan 1, 2030.

Close date updated to 2029-12-31 11:59 pm

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 4% chance (55 traders, as of Sep 22, 2026).