The answer resolves YES if at least two named candidates in the 2028 Democratic presidential primaries satisfy at least one the following criteria:
Won at least 5 contests (by popular vote)
Won at least 10% of the total number of pledged delegates
Won at least 25% of the total popular vote
Otherwise, the answer resolves NO.
Note that winning any of the first four contests does not automatically satisfy the criteria. All criteria are calculated based on the candidate's performance at the end of the nomination process.
For example, the 2024 Republican primary is not considered competitive, since Nikki Haley only won 2 contests, receiving 4.3% of the total pledged delegates and 19.7% of the popular vote. However, the 2020 Democratic primary is considered competitive since Bernie Sanders received 28.1% of the total pledged delegates and 26.2% of the popular vote.
This question will resolve after a candidate is officially nominated at the 2028 Democratic National Convention.
I don’t get how this market can be this high given the current odds on Kamala becoming president. If she becomes president (50-60%) then the only chance this market has of evaluating to YES is if she dies or is so terribly rated that she loses the incumbency advantage. And I don’t see the odds of those being sufficiently high for this market here to be trading at the rates it’s trading at.