Professor Allan Lichtman's "Keys to the White House" is a qualitative model that predicts which party will win the 2024 presidential election. The incumbent party is predicted to win re-election if there are at most 5 of the 13 keys are assessed as "failed".
The answer that matches the number of "failed" keys in Allan Lichtman's official prediction will resolve to YES, and all other options will resolve to NO. The question will resolve to N/A if Allan does not release an official prediction by Tuesday November 5th, 2024.
Related markets
Alright, it seems like he's reached a prediction about the overall winner, but he hasn't yet given a prediction for the two foreign policy keys. I'm reopening the market with the caveat that the options (3), (4), and (5) are all still possible. Since it sounds like the predictions for these keys are dependent on the possible resolution of the Gaza war before the election date, I will be resolving this market on or after November 5th, as originally planned.
@BenjaminDarnell Official prediction just dropped: https://x.com/allanlichtman/status/1831631212927951103?s=46
3 false keys
That seems to me to be a really roundabout way of making this prediction.
This would be useful only if the keys were defined in a really clear and unambiguous way. As is, he can just change them for arbitrary reasons, just following the voting trends, and he'll get an approximately correct forecast.
This whole model is unfalsifiable.
The only possible value would be if he makes an unforced mistake - i.e. a too cocky prediction, and is publicly proven wrong.