How many of Allan Lichtman's keys will be false for the 2024 Presidential Election?

1kṀ5412

resolved Nov 6

100%51%

1.6%

2 or fewer

24%

18%

1.1%

1.6%

1.1%

10 or more

Professor Allan Lichtman's "Keys to the White House" is a qualitative model that predicts which party will win the 2024 presidential election. The incumbent party is predicted to win re-election if there are at most 5 of the 13 keys are assessed as "failed".

The answer that matches the number of "failed" keys in Allan Lichtman's official prediction will resolve to YES, and all other options will resolve to NO. The question will resolve to N/A if Allan does not release an official prediction by Tuesday November 5th, 2024.