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@mods Haply New Year. Could you please resolve? Thanks!

@BaylorW Happy New Year! Could you please resolve? Thanks!

Putin is just 70 years old, and insanely wealthy. According to this, the life expectancy for 70 year old men is 13.6 years.
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

@OzzieGooen On Metaculus, he's listed as likely ending his Presidency on Nov 2025.

I don't see the argument for him to have a high chance of death in the next ~18 months. I'd naturally place it at maybe 1-6%?

@OzzieGooen Obviously the idea would be that he'd get assassinated. I think 1-6% sounds about right.

@JamesColiar yea - I'd expect the odds of assassination to be low (<5%). That very rarely happens to world leaders like this.