Will we be able to control the weather before 2045?
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"We" refers to humans, human-generated tools, AIs, etc.

Control the weather refers to being able to cause every climate condition which is within the normal range for some region, under some reasonable timeframe.

For example, a necessary, but not sufficient, condition would be that, if it rains on one day per week in Paris, then we can decide to make it rain on Monday, and not on any day for the rest of the week, whether or not that would have been the case without our intervention.

See also:
/Bayesian/will-we-be-able-to-control-the-weat-f47455a10483

/Bayesian/will-we-be-able-to-control-the-weat (This one)

/Bayesian/will-we-be-able-to-control-the-weat-ae971df8b4cd

And for a market on a much stronger kind of control over the weather:
/Bayesian/will-we-have-total-control-over-the

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bought Ṁ50 YES

How close to Yes is this just because cloud seeding is a thing? It's been used in the past to increase water supply and supposedly has been used in some countries, including Russia, to make it rain a few days before important military parades to prevent rain on that day.

@MartyDettmann That isn't specific enough control over the weather

@Bayesian I suppose if you can cause the rain to occur on a particular day, and similarly cause it to stop, but you can also do that for snow, tornados, thunderstorms, cloudyness.. then it would meet the criteria

@Bayesian "For example, it rains on one day per week in Paris, and we can decide to make it rain on Monday, and not on any day for the rest of the week, whether or not that would have been the case without our intervention."
Your own description as of market creation sounds exactly like what has been possible with cloud seeding for decades. If that's not actually enough to resolve Yes then please specify what would suffice for a Yes resolution.

@MartyDettmann that is one example of a thing where we control the weather, but it's not sufficient; we need to be able to control the weather in terms of all naturally occurring weather patterns, not just rain. I'll clarify it in the description

Control the weather refers to being able to cause any climate condition which is within the normal range for some region, under some reasonable timeframe.

Is this not clear? rain is one such climate condition, but isn't all of them

@Bayesian This also implies that we could just decide, "No hurricanes in Florida this year", right? That seems pretty unlikely to me.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 no, it would be sufficient to be able to choose precisely when the hurricanes will occur. If there are hurricanes in Florida every year, it wouldn't be within the normal range for there to not be hurricanes at all, so it isn't required that we be able to stop hurricanes entirely for the purpose of this question, if hurricanes do naturally occur

@Bayesian I interpret “any” here a “at least one”. If you intend to only resolve Yes if all possible weather conditions are controllable then maybe rephrase to something like

Control the weather refers to being able to cause all possible climate conditions which are within the normal range for some region, under some reasonable timeframe.”

@zaperrer I also imagine it will be difficult to define what is normal especially with shifting extreme climate conditions.

@zaperrer
> I interpret “any” here a “at least one”.
ok I'm clarifying it

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