Some people on the right have made noise about restricting the NWS from providing weather forecasts in the past, and with Trump back in office, they may try to do so again.
Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if the National Weather Service stops providing weather forecasts to the U.S. public before January 1, 2027. Specifically, this will resolve YES if the NWS does not provide forecasts, or provides forecasts limited to the following 72 hours or less, to areas of the U.S. representing a majority of Americans, for a period of at least one week. This includes both their website (weather.gov) and official forecast products.
The market will resolve NO if NOAA continues to provide weather forecasts through 2026.
Temporary interruptions in service due to technical issues or government shutdowns will not count as stopping forecasts. Forecasts being migrated to a new government organization, or the NWS being renamed, will not inherently resolve this market YES. I will not bet on this market.
1,000NO ~2%
Trump's FY2026 budget actually gives the NWS a 6.7% budget increase. The proposed NOAA cuts target research labs (OAR, NSSL, hurricane research), not operational forecasting.
Senate appropriators have already opposed larger NOAA cuts. Even with ~600 layoffs across NOAA, the NWS's ~4,800 forecast staff and core operations continue. Completely halting weather forecasts during hurricane/tornado season is political suicide — bipartisan opposition would be immediate.
The resolution bar is high: NWS must stop or limit forecasts to ≤72hrs for a majority of Americans for at least one week. Even drastic budget cuts wouldn't produce this outcome. The cycle continues.