The current ones suck, I am making new ones that hopefully will not suck, resolves YES if i have created them to my satisfaction today
Update 2026-04-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The minimum number of markets required for YES resolution is 13 (not 12 or 24).
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ497 | |
| 2 | Ṁ50 | |
| 3 | Ṁ9 | |
| 4 | Ṁ9 | |
| 5 | Ṁ5 |
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thank god i had 9 minutes left. it's not really polished but at least it motivated me to do it and i can improve it. feedback recommended for tweaks, see https://manifold.markets/Bayesian?tab=questions sort by "New"
the motivation of having a pre-ipo and post-ipo resolution criteria split is that we want the market to if possible be st. 1. resolvable early on early reports, 2. resolvable as quickly as possible when deadline is reached, 3. add answers in between existing ones to add precision as time goes on, 4. the market closes at a time where it's unlikely there will not have been data usable to resolve the market in several months. the problem with the post IPO situation is that they will plausibly stop releasing ARR, and start releasing quarterly revenue (thoguh this is uncertain), and so i align the close dates to quarters and allow information to flow back to previous quarter's market, since it's released within 40 days iiuc. but uncertain if complexity tradeoff is worth it or if better idea exists
@Bayesian You could say 13 as a compromise. That's 1.083 "dozens" which maybe justifies the plural a bit better? I'd advocate editing the title in any case.