Which Manifold User will create the most markets in 2024?

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i made 100 yesterday

bought แน€10 @strutheo YES

Is there some way to watch this?

bought แน€5 @strutheo NO

I don't think there is without the API. If I get around to fetching that info with a python script I'll post updated values every so often

@mattyb @Bayesian

Iโ€™m not sure how to see 2024 specifically.

But I see that in each user profile you can pull up rating, rank, # questions, and # Traders engaged.

I just searched e.g., strutheo (who is leading in this particular market we are chatting inside)

Select users

Select 2nd tab Questions

He is ranked #11 with 1.3k questions (markets) and 20k Traders

But he just celebrated his 100th day on March 3! I donโ€™t know how to calibrate his # markets to the other contenders.

@Bayesian @mattyb

Here is the correlated list of top traders, top creators, etc


opened a แน€100 @strutheo YES at 2% order

@SusanneinFrance I will try to figure out the current number now. I expect it to be easy, by looking at all markets, filtering by ones created in the timestamps consistent with 2024, and +1ing each creator when such a market was created by them. HYPE!

@Bayesian Major upset!!!

bought แน€30 @strutheo NO

disclaimer: I may have made a mistake somewhere somehow. The data is a few days old.

There is probably a mistake. I have 285 markets made in total. Many more than 5 of them made in 2023. Hmmm...

from cache import load_markets
from datetime import datetime
markets = load_markets()
def market_created_time_in_2024(market):
    created_time_str = str(market['createdTime']) # 1716430315206
    created_time = datetime.fromtimestamp(int(created_time_str) / 1000)
    return created_time.year == 2024

markets = list(filter(market_created_time_in_2024, markets))
# count the number of markets created by each market creator
from collections import defaultdict
market_creators = defaultdict(int)
for market in markets:
    market_creators[market['creatorUsername']] += 1
# sort market creators by number of markets created
market_creators = sorted(market_creators.items(), key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True)

for i, (creator, count) in enumerate(market_creators[:20]):
    print(f'{i+1:3}. {creator[:18]:18}|{count:10,}')