Ignoring the 1 minute grace period at the start, will this market display a probability of 70% or less at any point before market close?
Rounds:
/Bayesian/this-market-hits-70-after-1minute-g
/Bayesian/this-market-hits-70-after-1minute-g-CAAPqldP6I
/Bayesian/this-market-hits-70-after-1minute-g-Cn56czpZRQ
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ7,506 | |
| 2 | Ṁ5,655 | |
| 3 | Ṁ2,752 | |
| 4 | Ṁ1,314 | |
| 5 | Ṁ420 |
People are also trading
@Bayesian Will tip M100 if you create round 4. (my opinion is that if daily coin flips are allowed to exist, this should be allowed to exist)
@dgga you don't actually fill your own orders first. if you check the trade log, you'll see that I filled it.
@calour you filled a tiny bit, yeah, but all of my mana went towards my order instead of yours even though yours was older.
Edit: Otherwise I would curretly be holding 50k NO, have an order for 35k something YES @71%, and your order would be significantly lower.
Edit2: Or something is not showing correctly in my trade log nor in my notifications.
@dgga What happened was:
1. You create a YES limit order.
2. I cancelled all my YES limit order.
3. I create my YES limit orders again, but it is now below yours.
4. I buy 349 NO and trade with your limit order at the top of the stack.
5. You buy 14500 NO. Since your order is now at the top of the stack, you trade with your own order.
(I was wrong, I did not fill it, but also my orders were newer when you bought NO)
@calour I see. I only feel a tiny bit violated, which was to be expected when participating in these kind of markets.


