Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran when?
29
1.2kṀ2821Dec 31
23%
Before February 2026
28%
Before March 2026
33%
Before April 2026
33%
Before May 2026
39%
Before June 2026
39%
Before July 2026
39%
Before August 2026
41%
Before September 2026
42%
Before October 2026
45%
Before November 2026
45%
Before December 2026
53%
Before 2027
From Polymarket:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is removed from power for any length of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Khamenei will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Supreme Leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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The low %s here are a great argument that prediction markets don't really work lol
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mbwynkj3yk2f
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