From Polymarket:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is removed from power for any length of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Khamenei will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Supreme Leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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NYT: "Nonessential U.S. military personnel are being evacuated from a large air base in Qatar as Mr. Trump weighs military action in response to the Iranian government’s crackdown on protests. The Pentagon began moving personnel because of the tension with Iran, according to two U.S. military officials"
The low %s here are a great argument that prediction markets don't really work lol
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mbwynkj3yk2f
@ChurlishGambit The tide of the revolt could turn in favor of the regime, and the fires die down, some reforms may happen, but the system and regime remains.