N/A if neither happens before 2030 (https://manifold.markets/embed/Bayesian/will-the-us-or-china-impose-a-ban-o)

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, China and US are most likely. See the market for live updates (9 traders, as of Jul 28, 2026).

China vs US: who will be first to impose a ban on releasing open weight AIs above a certain threshold?

Will the US or China impose a ban on releasing open weight AIs above a certain threshold before 2030

61% chance

Will the US and/or China ban at least two open-source AI models before 2027?

58% chance

Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026?

17% chance

Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2027?

64% chance

Will China or the US announce ‘AGI’ first?

60% chance

Will China nerf its AI industry before the US does?

67% chance

Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.

14% chance

US and China publicly announce a bilateral AI arrangement before 2027?

13% chance

US-China Track 1 AI dialogue commits to shared AI safety benchmark by '27?

25% chance

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

26% chance